Each and every year since the 1970's, the US has outspent the rest of the world combined developing military technology. Do you really believe a nuclear Iran was any threat to the US?
What happened to make America great again?
Israel has Universal health care. They ranked 5th in the Global Health Index (94.2), while the US ranked 63rd with a GHI of 79.5. We are miles from Universal Health care.
You don't see any jewish nationals eating, sleeping and chiting on the streets of Haifa.
So why are American tax payers sending billions of dollars a year to a country with a higher standard of living.
And in return for the aid, we get to watch 50,000 defenseless women and children get blown to bits on tv.
THERE IS NO "FIX" - except a complete reset of the global financial system based on a return to a fully convertible gold standard. ANYTHING ELSE that is presented as a financial "solution" will ONLY be yet another attempt by the Deep State to "kick the can" for the benefit of the .001%.
Brilliant summary—and the 1970s parallel is increasingly hard to ignore. What makes the current environment even more precarious is that policymakers no longer have the same fiscal or monetary flexibility.
Great piece, and the 1970s parallel is a useful lens. But we can’t ignore the debt. Back then, Volcker could push real rates above 5% because the system wasn’t drowning in leverage. Today, global debt’s over 140% of GDP. Public debt alone is nearing $100 trillion.
At these levels, even a sustained 2% real rate strains the seams. Try going full Volcker now and you trigger a sovereign and corporate debt crisis.
The inflation risk is real. But the idea that we can repeat the same playbook without breaking the machine is the part we need to rethink.
Conventional oil production peaked nearly 20 years ago, we have been desperately cannibalizing nuclear war heads to fuel reactors, and shale oil production is now declining. Renewable energy is nothing more than a mirage of hopium.
The fourth horseman of the apocalypse is now mounted - natural gas production is contracting.
Natural Resources Market Commentary - Q3 2024
Goehring & Rozencwajg Natural Resource Investors
In the volatile world of U.S. natural gas, the past quarter unfolded with all the drama of a Shakespearean act. Prices began at a modest $2.60 per Mcf, buoyed by the quiet equilibrium of early spring. But by mid-June, the plot had transformed. An unseasonal heat wave gripping the central United States sent prices soaring to $3.15, a rally that spoke as much to the market’s sensitivity as it did to the hot weather. Yet, as quickly as the heat arrived, it receded. Milder temperatures reclaimed the stage and gas prices tumbled in response, bottoming at $1.90 by the end of August.
While market participants obsessed over weather patterns, few paused to consider the silent protagonist in this unfolding drama: inventories. The 2023–2024 winter, among the warmest on record, left a legacy of near-record storage levels. At the outset of the injection season, inventories stood at a staggering 700 Bcf—or 40%— above the ten-year average. Yet, tight fundamentals have nearly erased this surplus in a remarkable turn. Over the third quarter alone, inventories were drawn down by almost 400 Bcf. By quarter’s end, storage levels stood less than 5% above the norm, a quiet but profound shift that few have fully grasped.
This brings us to the present moment, where the market stands at a crossroads. If the coming winter delivers typical cold—after two years of unseasonable warmth—U.S. natural gas prices could well align with international benchmarks which currently hover near $14/MMBtu. The implications are vast, mainly as U.S. natural gas production, once seemingly boundless, now hints of rolling over.
Over the past fifteen months, growth in U.S. gas production has stalled. Indeed, in the past seven months, production has begun to contract. Since peaking in December 2023, U.S. dry gas supply has fallen by 3 Bcf per day—a 3% decline. Year-over-year data tells a similar story, with dry gas production now down by 1.2 Bcf per day, slightly more than 1%.
It is easy to get the impression that proposed new modular nuclear generating units will solve the problems of nuclear generation. Perhaps they will allow more nuclear electricity to be generated at a low cost and with much less of a problem with spent fuel.
As I analyze the situation, however, the problems associated with nuclear electricity generation are more complex and immediate than most people perceive. My analysis shows that the world is already dealing with “not enough uranium from mines to go around.” In particular, US production of uranium “peaked” about 1980 (Figure 1).
For many years, the US was able to down-blend nuclear warheads (both purchased from Russia and from its own supply) to get around its uranium supply deficit.
Today, the inventory of nuclear warheads has dropped quite low. There are few warheads available for down-blending. This is creating a limit on uranium supply that is only now starting to hit.
Nuclear warheads, besides providing uranium in general, are important for the fact that they provide a concentrated source of uranium-235, which is the isotope of uranium that can sustain a nuclear reaction. With the warhead supply depleting, the US has a second huge problem: developing a way to produce nuclear fuel, probably mostly from spent fuel, with the desired high concentration of uranium-235. Today, Russia is the primary supplier of enriched uranium.
In 2024, more companies closed than in the previous major financial and economic crisis in 2011. High electricity prices have meant that energy-intensive industries have been hit especially hard. In addition, companies are having to close due to a shortage of workers and specialists as society is ageing. Germany's burgeoning bureaucracy is another major factor hampering business.
Drum roll please…. and the answer is - they blame this on ‘the Ukraine War’
The German economy has become less and less competitive. A decisive factor was Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the halt to Russian gas supplies. The successful German business model of using cheap energy and high engineering skills to manufacture products that are in demand worldwide has been history ever since. Source
Hang on … as I posted some months ago:
June 2024 Russia Reclaims Its Position as Europe’s Top Gas Supplier - Russia has surpassed the U.S. as the primary supplier of gas to Europe, despite efforts by the region to reduce reliance on Russian energy sources.
So no, this has fuck all to do with the ‘war’. It’s BAU in terms of Russia supplying Europe with gas.
Iran's parliament just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, although I believe it also has to be approved by other leaders. So much of China's oil goes through the Strait I didn't think Iran would take this option, but then, China will see it as the US's fault I suppose.
Unfortunately I remember it too well, as I was paying 23% on a bank loan for options that gave me a hard lesson in rolling the dice. Since then, gold, silver, uranium, and some other commodities stocks. Has been a long hard drag, but finally my ship is coming in. Sadly, as I always told my grown kids and friends, when I do exceedingly well, the country, and perhaps world, will be in crap city. I am not a seer, simply educated enough to understand economics and politics and human nature.
Each and every year since the 1970's, the US has outspent the rest of the world combined developing military technology. Do you really believe a nuclear Iran was any threat to the US?
What happened to make America great again?
Israel has Universal health care. They ranked 5th in the Global Health Index (94.2), while the US ranked 63rd with a GHI of 79.5. We are miles from Universal Health care.
You don't see any jewish nationals eating, sleeping and chiting on the streets of Haifa.
So why are American tax payers sending billions of dollars a year to a country with a higher standard of living.
And in return for the aid, we get to watch 50,000 defenseless women and children get blown to bits on tv.
THERE IS NO "FIX" - except a complete reset of the global financial system based on a return to a fully convertible gold standard. ANYTHING ELSE that is presented as a financial "solution" will ONLY be yet another attempt by the Deep State to "kick the can" for the benefit of the .001%.
Brilliant summary—and the 1970s parallel is increasingly hard to ignore. What makes the current environment even more precarious is that policymakers no longer have the same fiscal or monetary flexibility.
Great piece, and the 1970s parallel is a useful lens. But we can’t ignore the debt. Back then, Volcker could push real rates above 5% because the system wasn’t drowning in leverage. Today, global debt’s over 140% of GDP. Public debt alone is nearing $100 trillion.
At these levels, even a sustained 2% real rate strains the seams. Try going full Volcker now and you trigger a sovereign and corporate debt crisis.
The inflation risk is real. But the idea that we can repeat the same playbook without breaking the machine is the part we need to rethink.
Lookin' forward to seeing it all play out.
Unlike the 70's....
Conventional oil production peaked nearly 20 years ago, we have been desperately cannibalizing nuclear war heads to fuel reactors, and shale oil production is now declining. Renewable energy is nothing more than a mirage of hopium.
The fourth horseman of the apocalypse is now mounted - natural gas production is contracting.
Natural Resources Market Commentary - Q3 2024
Goehring & Rozencwajg Natural Resource Investors
In the volatile world of U.S. natural gas, the past quarter unfolded with all the drama of a Shakespearean act. Prices began at a modest $2.60 per Mcf, buoyed by the quiet equilibrium of early spring. But by mid-June, the plot had transformed. An unseasonal heat wave gripping the central United States sent prices soaring to $3.15, a rally that spoke as much to the market’s sensitivity as it did to the hot weather. Yet, as quickly as the heat arrived, it receded. Milder temperatures reclaimed the stage and gas prices tumbled in response, bottoming at $1.90 by the end of August.
While market participants obsessed over weather patterns, few paused to consider the silent protagonist in this unfolding drama: inventories. The 2023–2024 winter, among the warmest on record, left a legacy of near-record storage levels. At the outset of the injection season, inventories stood at a staggering 700 Bcf—or 40%— above the ten-year average. Yet, tight fundamentals have nearly erased this surplus in a remarkable turn. Over the third quarter alone, inventories were drawn down by almost 400 Bcf. By quarter’s end, storage levels stood less than 5% above the norm, a quiet but profound shift that few have fully grasped.
This brings us to the present moment, where the market stands at a crossroads. If the coming winter delivers typical cold—after two years of unseasonable warmth—U.S. natural gas prices could well align with international benchmarks which currently hover near $14/MMBtu. The implications are vast, mainly as U.S. natural gas production, once seemingly boundless, now hints of rolling over.
Over the past fifteen months, growth in U.S. gas production has stalled. Indeed, in the past seven months, production has begun to contract. Since peaking in December 2023, U.S. dry gas supply has fallen by 3 Bcf per day—a 3% decline. Year-over-year data tells a similar story, with dry gas production now down by 1.2 Bcf per day, slightly more than 1%.
More https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/natural-gas-production-is-contracting
Eddy you are CORRECT about natural gas production. But we still have an endless supply of natural Gas. Production is cut to boost price of gas.
It is easy to get the impression that proposed new modular nuclear generating units will solve the problems of nuclear generation. Perhaps they will allow more nuclear electricity to be generated at a low cost and with much less of a problem with spent fuel.
As I analyze the situation, however, the problems associated with nuclear electricity generation are more complex and immediate than most people perceive. My analysis shows that the world is already dealing with “not enough uranium from mines to go around.” In particular, US production of uranium “peaked” about 1980 (Figure 1).
For many years, the US was able to down-blend nuclear warheads (both purchased from Russia and from its own supply) to get around its uranium supply deficit.
Today, the inventory of nuclear warheads has dropped quite low. There are few warheads available for down-blending. This is creating a limit on uranium supply that is only now starting to hit.
Nuclear warheads, besides providing uranium in general, are important for the fact that they provide a concentrated source of uranium-235, which is the isotope of uranium that can sustain a nuclear reaction. With the warhead supply depleting, the US has a second huge problem: developing a way to produce nuclear fuel, probably mostly from spent fuel, with the desired high concentration of uranium-235. Today, Russia is the primary supplier of enriched uranium.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/why-dont-we-just-build-more-nuclear
In 2024, more companies closed than in the previous major financial and economic crisis in 2011. High electricity prices have meant that energy-intensive industries have been hit especially hard. In addition, companies are having to close due to a shortage of workers and specialists as society is ageing. Germany's burgeoning bureaucracy is another major factor hampering business.
Drum roll please…. and the answer is - they blame this on ‘the Ukraine War’
The German economy has become less and less competitive. A decisive factor was Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the halt to Russian gas supplies. The successful German business model of using cheap energy and high engineering skills to manufacture products that are in demand worldwide has been history ever since. Source
Hang on … as I posted some months ago:
June 2024 Russia Reclaims Its Position as Europe’s Top Gas Supplier - Russia has surpassed the U.S. as the primary supplier of gas to Europe, despite efforts by the region to reduce reliance on Russian energy sources.
So no, this has fuck all to do with the ‘war’. It’s BAU in terms of Russia supplying Europe with gas.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/german-economy-in-severe-crisis
Iran's parliament just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, although I believe it also has to be approved by other leaders. So much of China's oil goes through the Strait I didn't think Iran would take this option, but then, China will see it as the US's fault I suppose.
Unfortunately I remember it too well, as I was paying 23% on a bank loan for options that gave me a hard lesson in rolling the dice. Since then, gold, silver, uranium, and some other commodities stocks. Has been a long hard drag, but finally my ship is coming in. Sadly, as I always told my grown kids and friends, when I do exceedingly well, the country, and perhaps world, will be in crap city. I am not a seer, simply educated enough to understand economics and politics and human nature.
This will be the outcome https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/collapse-and-cannibalism
What Cannot Continue Will Stop
"There's not a lot of gas left in the tank"
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/what-cannot-continue-will-stop-6a4
Please stop spamming your substack. You've done this 5 times within the comments on this article.
Who is john galt?
(Couldn’t resist)