This is a great deep dive into nuclear power’s surprising resurgence. The shift from fringe to frontline in just a couple of years highlights how urgent and dynamic the clean energy transition has become. The combination of geopolitical pushes, policy changes (like the US executive orders), and China’s aggressive buildout really sets the stage for a nuclear renaissance.
Apparently 90% of uranium fuel in a "spent" fuel rod is still available after 5 years of use, i.e. only
10% has been used. France is recycling their spent fuel rods. So, as better recycling methods emerge the need for increased mining might not be so great. Something to consider.
Credit markets are currently pricing in a 6-level credit downgrade for the US Treasuries, which would give it a rating of BBB, just a smidge above investment gradeA severe downgrade would send US Treasury bond interest rates to 6+%, and mortgages to 10+%
Why Don't We Just Build More Nuclear Power Plants?
Surely there must be a good reason
As I analyze the situation, however, the problems associated with nuclear electricity generation are more complex and immediate than most people perceive. My analysis shows that the world is already dealing with “not enough uranium from mines to go around.” In particular, US production of uranium “peaked” about 1980 (Figure 1).
For many years, the US was able to down-blend nuclear warheads (both purchased from Russia and from its own supply) to get around its uranium supply deficit.
Today, the inventory of nuclear warheads has dropped quite low. There are few warheads available for down-blending. This is creating a limit on uranium supply that is only now starting to hit.
Nuclear warheads, besides providing uranium in general, are important for the fact that they provide a concentrated source of uranium-235, which is the isotope of uranium that can sustain a nuclear reaction. With the warhead supply depleting, the US has a second huge problem: developing a way to produce nuclear fuel, probably mostly from spent fuel, with the desired high concentration of uranium-235. Today, Russia is the primary supplier of enriched uranium.
As with many other commodities (so called Rare Earths, Oil etc.) I´m pretty sure that the availability you describe as scarce is mainly scarce due to the actual prices. As soon as these increase considerably there will be incentives to dig out the "higher hanging fruits".
Besides; the common plants extract between 3 and 5% of the energy content of the fuel rods before they need to be reprocessed.
One design, developed by Chinese engineers and having gone productive in 2018 enables this new type to use the "spent" rods and extract their energy down to 70 %.
Other designs like DUAL FLUID REACTOR are entirely designed to run with "nuclear waste", so in fact there´s no real shortage or restriction from this side.
Generally, we´re sailing in the same boat. But Nuclear is different imo as the costs of fuel are minor compared to the enormous investments necessary up front.
And - see the promising technological advances....
I checked out (right now at 75 %) of GER, in 2021. For a reason ;-))
This is a great deep dive into nuclear power’s surprising resurgence. The shift from fringe to frontline in just a couple of years highlights how urgent and dynamic the clean energy transition has become. The combination of geopolitical pushes, policy changes (like the US executive orders), and China’s aggressive buildout really sets the stage for a nuclear renaissance.
https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/5-fast-facts-about-spent-nuclear-fuel
Apparently 90% of uranium fuel in a "spent" fuel rod is still available after 5 years of use, i.e. only
10% has been used. France is recycling their spent fuel rods. So, as better recycling methods emerge the need for increased mining might not be so great. Something to consider.
Kind of amusing how late the cracks from GS come to the party. They are quite well paid for their work? Are´nt they?
Credit markets are currently pricing in a 6-level credit downgrade for the US Treasuries, which would give it a rating of BBB, just a smidge above investment gradeA severe downgrade would send US Treasury bond interest rates to 6+%, and mortgages to 10+%
Why Don't We Just Build More Nuclear Power Plants?
Surely there must be a good reason
As I analyze the situation, however, the problems associated with nuclear electricity generation are more complex and immediate than most people perceive. My analysis shows that the world is already dealing with “not enough uranium from mines to go around.” In particular, US production of uranium “peaked” about 1980 (Figure 1).
For many years, the US was able to down-blend nuclear warheads (both purchased from Russia and from its own supply) to get around its uranium supply deficit.
Today, the inventory of nuclear warheads has dropped quite low. There are few warheads available for down-blending. This is creating a limit on uranium supply that is only now starting to hit.
Nuclear warheads, besides providing uranium in general, are important for the fact that they provide a concentrated source of uranium-235, which is the isotope of uranium that can sustain a nuclear reaction. With the warhead supply depleting, the US has a second huge problem: developing a way to produce nuclear fuel, probably mostly from spent fuel, with the desired high concentration of uranium-235. Today, Russia is the primary supplier of enriched uranium.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/why-dont-we-just-build-more-nuclear
As with many other commodities (so called Rare Earths, Oil etc.) I´m pretty sure that the availability you describe as scarce is mainly scarce due to the actual prices. As soon as these increase considerably there will be incentives to dig out the "higher hanging fruits".
Besides; the common plants extract between 3 and 5% of the energy content of the fuel rods before they need to be reprocessed.
One design, developed by Chinese engineers and having gone productive in 2018 enables this new type to use the "spent" rods and extract their energy down to 70 %.
Other designs like DUAL FLUID REACTOR are entirely designed to run with "nuclear waste", so in fact there´s no real shortage or restriction from this side.
https://dual-fluid.com/
We are seeing what happens when prices rise... see inflation ... see entire industries being shut down due to expensive energy https://www.ineos.com/news/ineos-group/chemicals-coming-to-an-end-in-the-uk/
Then there is Germany -- the country is dying for want of affordable energy... as it all of Europe https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/german-economy-in-severe-crisis
NZ is also dying ... that is why I sold out of Queenstown and departing a year and a half ago -- shifting to a higher deck on the Titanic https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/new-zealand-update-gas-shortages
Generally, we´re sailing in the same boat. But Nuclear is different imo as the costs of fuel are minor compared to the enormous investments necessary up front.
And - see the promising technological advances....
I checked out (right now at 75 %) of GER, in 2021. For a reason ;-))
The thing is ... have a look at Figure 5.... uranium production has been crashing for years https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/11/11/nuclear-electricity-generation-has-hidden-problems-dont-expect-advanced-modular-units-to-solve-them/
IN any event - the does not run on electricity - it primarily runs on diesel... and you cannot power mining or transportation with batteries https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/a-diesel-powered-civilization
But feel free to continue following BBCCNN for more hopium -- we want you to remain hopeful
There will be plenty more coming your way the closer we get to collapse
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/gaslighting-on-energy-intensifies
I'm back John.
Check out this article on Oilprice dot com.
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Why-US-Uranium-Production-Surged-12-Fold-In-2024.html
IDR, Idaho Strategic Resources claims to have the largest Thorium land package in the U.S.
Yahoo has an article with this company looking at ANEEL.
Let me know your thoughts.
Thanks,
Joel