Don’t mean to be a downer, but I don’t think there will be a rapid reversal after the coming “crash”. Instead there might be a number of bull traps, at best. Things have gone too far and for too long for there to be just a
In the meantime, an interesting sub— theme is talk of bitcoin miners switching to ai data centers because bitcoin is inherently limited and the easy money made, and the competing cost of copper and energy and the need for productive computing power.
Thanks John, are we looking at a repeat of the late 70s? I worked in the City then and made a bomb on copper futures after the earlier recession brought on by the oil shock. In my book, Chapter 13 - I bravely predict a depression followed by a bull market as you say. I feel that 2025 will at least be interesting!
I am in the Western Cape now, permanently, and write a 'Letter from South Africa' due this Saturday with some interesting commodities observations.
If the price of copper rises and the EcoNazis want more copper for their EVs, etc., there will be more pressure to open new copper mines in new areas like the Copper River in Alaska. The locals have been fighting that copper mining project for decades.
So, you have eco-warriors on one side against the Climate Change Crazies on the other.
PS: Copper River salmon is the best in the world. The harvested fish rarely make it past the Seattle market.
That's news to me & I live & commercially-fished downstream from the Copper River at its mouth (Cordova, Alaska) and have also lived and commercially fished in the Bristol Bay region where the contested and very contentious proposed Pebble mine is located some 300 miles to the west of here at the headwaters of the largest sockeye salmon runs on the planet.
David, So, I looked up Alaska's geography. The Pebble Mine would be near Lake Iliamna SW of Anchorage. The Copper River is near Cordova SE of Anchorage. The Pebble mine waste would flow into the west side of Bristol Bay. The Copper River drainage, (huge delta BTW) flows into the east side of Bristol Bay. Either way, the salmon fishery will suffer everywhere in Bristol Bay.
As an aside, I rebuilt Beavers at Kenmore Air Harbor. The Beaver Shop rebuilt a Beaver for Iliamna Air. It was a pretty plane.
David, I thought the Pebble Mine was on the Copper River watershed. My point is still the same. If there is a strong demand for copper, mines like the Pebble Mine will be opened no matter what the locals say.
Does that mean stay away until the dust clears? Not necessarily. But it does mean approach with caution until the current imbalances work themselves out. Use low-ball bids, dollar cost averaging, and put writing to gradually build positions over the next few years. The goal is to be ready for the epic bull market when it begins. Slow and steady definitely wins this race
NO.....do not stay away from the Markets.......BUT...BUT.....do approach with caution.......and do not get panicky and sell when the Market turns down........that is what the Rich want you to do.....
when you buy...only buy what you can afford.....everyone knows that.......that way you can afford to stay firm when the Market looks shitty.......
the only time i Sell anything is when John says so...........John is my guide.......
Don’t mean to be a downer, but I don’t think there will be a rapid reversal after the coming “crash”. Instead there might be a number of bull traps, at best. Things have gone too far and for too long for there to be just a
In the meantime, an interesting sub— theme is talk of bitcoin miners switching to ai data centers because bitcoin is inherently limited and the easy money made, and the competing cost of copper and energy and the need for productive computing power.
Thanks John, are we looking at a repeat of the late 70s? I worked in the City then and made a bomb on copper futures after the earlier recession brought on by the oil shock. In my book, Chapter 13 - I bravely predict a depression followed by a bull market as you say. I feel that 2025 will at least be interesting!
I am in the Western Cape now, permanently, and write a 'Letter from South Africa' due this Saturday with some interesting commodities observations.
Best
AP
If the price of copper rises and the EcoNazis want more copper for their EVs, etc., there will be more pressure to open new copper mines in new areas like the Copper River in Alaska. The locals have been fighting that copper mining project for decades.
So, you have eco-warriors on one side against the Climate Change Crazies on the other.
PS: Copper River salmon is the best in the world. The harvested fish rarely make it past the Seattle market.
That's news to me & I live & commercially-fished downstream from the Copper River at its mouth (Cordova, Alaska) and have also lived and commercially fished in the Bristol Bay region where the contested and very contentious proposed Pebble mine is located some 300 miles to the west of here at the headwaters of the largest sockeye salmon runs on the planet.
David, So, I looked up Alaska's geography. The Pebble Mine would be near Lake Iliamna SW of Anchorage. The Copper River is near Cordova SE of Anchorage. The Pebble mine waste would flow into the west side of Bristol Bay. The Copper River drainage, (huge delta BTW) flows into the east side of Bristol Bay. Either way, the salmon fishery will suffer everywhere in Bristol Bay.
As an aside, I rebuilt Beavers at Kenmore Air Harbor. The Beaver Shop rebuilt a Beaver for Iliamna Air. It was a pretty plane.
David, I thought the Pebble Mine was on the Copper River watershed. My point is still the same. If there is a strong demand for copper, mines like the Pebble Mine will be opened no matter what the locals say.
I've sat on the banks of the Copper River, dip net in hand, pulling Kings and Sockeyes out of the river as they swam into my net. Great fish.
Does that mean stay away until the dust clears? Not necessarily. But it does mean approach with caution until the current imbalances work themselves out. Use low-ball bids, dollar cost averaging, and put writing to gradually build positions over the next few years. The goal is to be ready for the epic bull market when it begins. Slow and steady definitely wins this race
NO.....do not stay away from the Markets.......BUT...BUT.....do approach with caution.......and do not get panicky and sell when the Market turns down........that is what the Rich want you to do.....
when you buy...only buy what you can afford.....everyone knows that.......that way you can afford to stay firm when the Market looks shitty.......
the only time i Sell anything is when John says so...........John is my guide.......
Agreed Lance, dollar averaging has been my key strategy as John has noted.