One of the best bits of advice I've learned is to identify what you want and stick to it. Almost always, when the opportunity to get that is second guessed and passed on it will fall away. It's similar to having an exit strategy for an investment. And more often than not you'll not only be happy with meeting your goal but you won't care about it any more, even if it "goes up." You got what you wanted.
Anyone who has been playing the greed game will lose in this event. And that's true for both buyers and sellers, but mostly sellers.
I live in Scottsdale Arizona and the selling prices are insane. The bigger problem is most are totally junk and poor maintenance. One needs to analyze the purchasing price and consider potential delayed expenses. I sold 2 years ago and will not reenter the market if i cannot get close to 50% discount from the over price houses.
Also, I think a factor not too much present in previous housing cycles was the rise in interest rates during this bubble. I've been buying and selling my primary residences off and on for 40+ years, and this is the first time in my recollection that interest rates have departed from their secular downtrend in all that time. Many would-be sellers refrained from selling their lower priced homes and "moving up" because they didn't want to give up their low interest mortgages. This constrained supply more than usual and probably delayed the downturn.
100% correct. 2013 was the first real “positive” year for prices if memory serves me right. I think they could stay depressed longer given the bust this time around.
I’d love to see this, but I am not sure prices drop materially in nominal dollars. They will definitely drop in gold terms.
Thank you. A good education.
One of the best bits of advice I've learned is to identify what you want and stick to it. Almost always, when the opportunity to get that is second guessed and passed on it will fall away. It's similar to having an exit strategy for an investment. And more often than not you'll not only be happy with meeting your goal but you won't care about it any more, even if it "goes up." You got what you wanted.
Anyone who has been playing the greed game will lose in this event. And that's true for both buyers and sellers, but mostly sellers.
Excellent analysis.
I live in Scottsdale Arizona and the selling prices are insane. The bigger problem is most are totally junk and poor maintenance. One needs to analyze the purchasing price and consider potential delayed expenses. I sold 2 years ago and will not reenter the market if i cannot get close to 50% discount from the over price houses.
Also, I think a factor not too much present in previous housing cycles was the rise in interest rates during this bubble. I've been buying and selling my primary residences off and on for 40+ years, and this is the first time in my recollection that interest rates have departed from their secular downtrend in all that time. Many would-be sellers refrained from selling their lower priced homes and "moving up" because they didn't want to give up their low interest mortgages. This constrained supply more than usual and probably delayed the downturn.
the 2008 bust didn't bottom out for 3 or 4 years. You think this is going to be faster and shorter and then soar again?
100% correct. 2013 was the first real “positive” year for prices if memory serves me right. I think they could stay depressed longer given the bust this time around.