I actually don't know much about the housing market these days, but from an outsider's perspective there seems to be two dynamics occurring. One is that most sellers aren't "motivated", meaning they can afford to carry the house they're in and will only sell if it seems really worth it. (True example: a developer asked to buy someone's house and they said they wouldn't sell it for less than, say, $2 million (I forgot the exact amount) and the developer paid it.)
The other dynamic is that there seems to be just enough buyers to keep the marginal prices up. I frankly don't see how so many people do it, other than 2 or 3 families piling into one house, but enough do. Maybe help from parents or windfalls from sales of houses in the North East. Even discounted prices in the NE can yield enough to buy 2 to 3 times as much house in the South, for instance.
Therefore, it seems to me the only way house prices are going to fall is when people are desperate, but the latest signs I see are relieving that. Trump, for example, wants to eliminate the capital gains tax on properties under a few million; and in Florida, at least, there are efforts to eliminate property taxes. I have no idea how either one of those plans would work (so probably won't) but they are having the effect of discouraging home sales for now, thus keeping prices high.
In the background, he's planning something else with his sinister donors and sycophants: Network States built around blockchain, which makes the United Nations happy.
Gil Duran ( the Nerd Reich) said this:
"Network States offer a path to crypto’s next wave of adoption by integrating onchain infrastructure into the parallel institutions supplanting the global system’s core functions. [. . .] As local communities dissolve and Nation States stumble, Network States will ascend. Soon, Network States will be your most important group affiliation, passport, and community. Network States will represent Citizens controlling trillions dollars of assets, represented on their native asset registries. We’ll watch the flippening of Network States over Nation States in real time. Network States will coalesce neighborhoods and build cities. The next global superpower will be a Network State. The next America will be onchain."
One trillion seconds is approximately 31,709.79 years. This conversion highlights the vastness of a trillion seconds, which is roughly the age of Homo sapiens as a species
Let's not forget that Trump is on record saying that he wants higher house prices. What buffoonery comes out between now and November to achieve his goals.
Barring an increase in mortgage rates to 16%, the only way house prices fall dramatically is if unemployment doubles or triples from here.
And with government deficits running at 2 to 3 Trillian $/yr, I just don't see that happening.
Dallas Fed - 30% of the homeprice price increase of last 5 6 years was due to the Democrats under Biden bringing in 20,000,000 illegal aliens. Mayorkas and Kamala Harris said over and over "The border was secure."
The Democrats are lying about this when they scream: "Affordability"
Why does your son want to live in a Democrat Garbage Dump? Tuscon is run by corrupt Democrats who caused this problem. Then there was Democrat Fauci and his bio-weapon.
I personally would never hire a 20+ year-old, who is still living in the basement. Either for my own company or a company which has given me the responsibility find the honest/capable employees necessary for the future.
I cannot imagine putting up with a child, that I raised, being so damn lazy and void of ambition.
No wonder socialism seems to be in our future. AI certainly is not the answer.
I was a RE investor in the early 1970’s and sold my residential properties by the end of that decade when the Fed raised interest rates to 16% on home loans. I sold all of my RE investments
and took my 4x gains. I did not invest in real estate investments until 1995 when I could buy newer construction at prices that netted a positive cash flow from rents. I sold the last of my 5 rental homes in 2020 making a 3x gains.
Having been successful in two cycles of RE investments, I would give the following advise. Either the home prices need to decrease 50% or more or rents have to increase by 300% or more.
This is not a good time to become a landlord. You will lose your ass.
Your chart shows the ideal time to shop for a house. In 2012 single family house available hit 6-6.5 which indicated a very definite buyer's market. This housing bust is just getting started and probably has a ways to go. This is an interesting post and the comment thread is interesting as well. Riding my bike I see that the Toll Bros have a number of new construction houses going in Spanish Springs, NV with many sold signs and a few available signs. We get a lot of buyers here from Ca and they must be getting their houses sold there?
The real absurdity is that fiat money and artificially suppressed interest rates inflated housing into a speculative asset instead of a place to live. The Cantillon effect enriched existing asset owners, while inflated house prices put homeownership out of reach for young families. The result is delayed household formation, lower fertility, and an increasingly fragile debt-based economy. These aren't unintended consequences—they're the predictable outcome of the system.
In my little trailer park, home sales have really slowed down over the last year.
One 1972 trailer, partially remodeled 2-bedroom, one-bathroom, just sold after being on the market for TEN months!
The asking price was only $24,900, the cheapest of all of the houses here currently for sale. Not sure what the actually selling price was.
The elderly couple who owned it moved out of state to live closer to family. They ended up paying for TEN months of $625/month space rent to the park owners while waiting for the house to sell.
A 40-something divorced friend of mine bought a new mobile home in a nice mobile home park in Arizona. The relatives, including her own mother, took advantage of her and moved in. Six people in a 3-bedroom trailer.
Now the niece is shopping for a 5 or 6-bedroom house to hold everyone.
I sure hope they are all contributing to the rent and utility payments.
As they say, "Not my circus, not my monkey." I won't offer advice unless they ask me for it.
"... and I'm watching with interest." I thought that was funny..... 🤷🏼♂️😂 (Good luck to your son, John.)
I actually don't know much about the housing market these days, but from an outsider's perspective there seems to be two dynamics occurring. One is that most sellers aren't "motivated", meaning they can afford to carry the house they're in and will only sell if it seems really worth it. (True example: a developer asked to buy someone's house and they said they wouldn't sell it for less than, say, $2 million (I forgot the exact amount) and the developer paid it.)
The other dynamic is that there seems to be just enough buyers to keep the marginal prices up. I frankly don't see how so many people do it, other than 2 or 3 families piling into one house, but enough do. Maybe help from parents or windfalls from sales of houses in the North East. Even discounted prices in the NE can yield enough to buy 2 to 3 times as much house in the South, for instance.
Therefore, it seems to me the only way house prices are going to fall is when people are desperate, but the latest signs I see are relieving that. Trump, for example, wants to eliminate the capital gains tax on properties under a few million; and in Florida, at least, there are efforts to eliminate property taxes. I have no idea how either one of those plans would work (so probably won't) but they are having the effect of discouraging home sales for now, thus keeping prices high.
Donald Trump Once Said He Would Eliminate America’s $19 Trillion in Debt. The Total Is Now Approaching $50 Trillion.
In the background, he's planning something else with his sinister donors and sycophants: Network States built around blockchain, which makes the United Nations happy.
Gil Duran ( the Nerd Reich) said this:
"Network States offer a path to crypto’s next wave of adoption by integrating onchain infrastructure into the parallel institutions supplanting the global system’s core functions. [. . .] As local communities dissolve and Nation States stumble, Network States will ascend. Soon, Network States will be your most important group affiliation, passport, and community. Network States will represent Citizens controlling trillions dollars of assets, represented on their native asset registries. We’ll watch the flippening of Network States over Nation States in real time. Network States will coalesce neighborhoods and build cities. The next global superpower will be a Network State. The next America will be onchain."
Keep us posted on how your son makes out
And just for a little context:
One trillion seconds is approximately 31,709.79 years. This conversion highlights the vastness of a trillion seconds, which is roughly the age of Homo sapiens as a species
Let's not forget that Trump is on record saying that he wants higher house prices. What buffoonery comes out between now and November to achieve his goals.
Barring an increase in mortgage rates to 16%, the only way house prices fall dramatically is if unemployment doubles or triples from here.
And with government deficits running at 2 to 3 Trillian $/yr, I just don't see that happening.
Dallas Fed - 30% of the homeprice price increase of last 5 6 years was due to the Democrats under Biden bringing in 20,000,000 illegal aliens. Mayorkas and Kamala Harris said over and over "The border was secure."
The Democrats are lying about this when they scream: "Affordability"
Why does your son want to live in a Democrat Garbage Dump? Tuscon is run by corrupt Democrats who caused this problem. Then there was Democrat Fauci and his bio-weapon.
I personally would never hire a 20+ year-old, who is still living in the basement. Either for my own company or a company which has given me the responsibility find the honest/capable employees necessary for the future.
I cannot imagine putting up with a child, that I raised, being so damn lazy and void of ambition.
No wonder socialism seems to be in our future. AI certainly is not the answer.
I think you are being a bit harsh here Harold.
Wouldn't a better measure for hiring be both the size of student loans and their status of repayment (ie is it current?).
This would eliminate both the dumbest and morally reprehensible people from your gene pool.
Bill, you are correct, my comment was too inclusive and rash.
Your gene pool reference is spot on.
I was a RE investor in the early 1970’s and sold my residential properties by the end of that decade when the Fed raised interest rates to 16% on home loans. I sold all of my RE investments
and took my 4x gains. I did not invest in real estate investments until 1995 when I could buy newer construction at prices that netted a positive cash flow from rents. I sold the last of my 5 rental homes in 2020 making a 3x gains.
Having been successful in two cycles of RE investments, I would give the following advise. Either the home prices need to decrease 50% or more or rents have to increase by 300% or more.
This is not a good time to become a landlord. You will lose your ass.
Your chart shows the ideal time to shop for a house. In 2012 single family house available hit 6-6.5 which indicated a very definite buyer's market. This housing bust is just getting started and probably has a ways to go. This is an interesting post and the comment thread is interesting as well. Riding my bike I see that the Toll Bros have a number of new construction houses going in Spanish Springs, NV with many sold signs and a few available signs. We get a lot of buyers here from Ca and they must be getting their houses sold there?
The real absurdity is that fiat money and artificially suppressed interest rates inflated housing into a speculative asset instead of a place to live. The Cantillon effect enriched existing asset owners, while inflated house prices put homeownership out of reach for young families. The result is delayed household formation, lower fertility, and an increasingly fragile debt-based economy. These aren't unintended consequences—they're the predictable outcome of the system.
In my little trailer park, home sales have really slowed down over the last year.
One 1972 trailer, partially remodeled 2-bedroom, one-bathroom, just sold after being on the market for TEN months!
The asking price was only $24,900, the cheapest of all of the houses here currently for sale. Not sure what the actually selling price was.
The elderly couple who owned it moved out of state to live closer to family. They ended up paying for TEN months of $625/month space rent to the park owners while waiting for the house to sell.
John - Thank you for the update on the housing market. We appreciate your substack articles.
In order to retire with a paid-off house, I purchased an old 1970s mobile home in a semi-decent trailer park.
It certainly wasn't my Plan "A" and as my wise adult son said, "It's really a Plan B or C."
Incredible ..thanks John
50% of young adults live at home ?
In 1964 I was a junior at James Madison HS In Brooklyn.
All my friends and of course me only talked about how soon would leave home .
It wasn’t just the kids either . Our parents were more eager than we were .
I graduated in June ‘65 and on August 15 I landed in Los Angeles to start UCLA in September.
All my friends scattered . A few stayed in Brooklyn but soon everyone not only left home ,they left NYC .
Yes my wife and I see it all the time . What is interesting is that the parents are with it .
A 40-something divorced friend of mine bought a new mobile home in a nice mobile home park in Arizona. The relatives, including her own mother, took advantage of her and moved in. Six people in a 3-bedroom trailer.
Now the niece is shopping for a 5 or 6-bedroom house to hold everyone.
I sure hope they are all contributing to the rent and utility payments.
As they say, "Not my circus, not my monkey." I won't offer advice unless they ask me for it.
Just another cog in the satanic Deep State/Globalist "Great Replacement" scheme in operation!