Best I could do on a 2020 Yamaha 212X (MSRP $75k) wake boat 3 weeks ago was $47k so I passed. Told the dealer to call me when it’s at $35k, which it will be before next summer. During the “deadly pandemic!” (survival rate 99.7%), 2015s of the same boat were regularly $50k+. Cash is king.
In 2020 Marine Max Inc. came on my undervalued stock screen and a bunch of other stocks I hadn’t seen on that screen before. The market slumped and I bought. Marine Max was my biggest winner. In a couple of months it was up way over my buy price.
If you follow that stock, it will probably tell you when boat sales are slumping. It is small enough to react quickly to poor sales.
Russia is instituting a new program to welcome foreigners escaping economic hardships. Putin is waiving the previous entrance requirement to be able to speak Russian and know Russian history. He’s even building expat communities for different countries’ refugees. And due to Biden’s “sanctions,” the Russian economy is growing, not shrinking like ours. Russia’s economy is miniscule compared to America’s, of course, but if you’re not a government worker with an inflated guaranteed income and fabulous pension for life, your personal economy is crashing around your head. Also remember, Russia is a Christian country, like we used to be, while the good ol’ USA is being overrun with illegal immigrants raping and killing our citizens and woke snowflakes manufactured in our own universities.
I recall my grand parents talking about the American Finns that immigrated to Russia back in Stalin era. Some of their abandoned houses were still around when I was young.
They were never heard from again. I don’t trust Russian government anymore than the U.S. government. But better the devil I know.
I guess the more adventurous could short the companies that produce RVs, Boats, and every other non essential items that were overbought during the COVID fiasco. I don’t see a quick reversion coming.
One anomaly I observed, and it may only be local, is the ATV/ UTV market is quite strong in my area. I made a point of asking when I bought one. It may just be a rural trend as it is quite a popular thing and almost thought of as a necessity in much of rural America.
I don’t think of it that way. We are pretty much bugged out up here already barring having to leave the country. I would feel really uncomfortable in a large city now.
The first John Rubino interview I watched he said that he’d be watching the rv market for a sign that things are getting bad! I’ve been a subscriber ever since! Thanks John
As times change, so does the value of indicators. Is the RV price crash due to hard economic times, or is it the result of the violent gun culture exploding in America. Rv-ing has become a dangerous pastime. There is no buffer between you and someone who wipes his butt with his bare hand. No thanks, we're good.
Since banks might go bust over bad commercial real estate loans…what about credit unions? Is it safer to have savings and checking accounts in credit unions?
In regard to RV sales, I told my wife a couple of years ago that RV prices will crash. Not for economic reasons, but demographic reasons.
As a person on the tail end of the baby boomers, I have seen older boomers buy their RV’s and sell them later as they age out of them. Younger boomers often bought the used ones. There simply isn’t another big generation behind the boomers to buy the tens of thousands of rigs available now.
The class A RV’s are typically bought by retired people who have plenty of money to buy them, and plenty of time to use them. Not so much working families.
I am not disregarding your premise as it certainly does affect buying decisions. I do believe this would have occurred to a degree even in a better economy.
As the early boomers start moving into assisted living and their graves, which is starting, the housing shortage will be alleviated as well. With the crumbling economy on top of that, I am not expecting my home to appreciate any time in the near future. Actually, I believe it peaked this year.
Boomers own a crap load of guns also. Hundreds of thousands of them. I have seen sales of them just recently. If you are a collector, there will be some awesome deals soon. Especially, because most younger people will not have the resources to buy them.
Yes, and another confounding variable might be that during the pandemic a ton of people sold their houses, bought RVs, and took to life on the road. It’s possible they are getting sick of living in a tin box and are liquidating. I noticed recently that fewer people seem to be buying boats and jet skis, but that is based on limited observation. If sales of those are declining as well it would shore up the RV as predictor of recession hypothesis.
During the scamdemic there was record sales of boats, RV,s and anything related to outdoor activities.
People were relocating to rural areas like mine and occupying vacation homes full time. There was also a local real estate boom where lake property was selling at top dollar and there was a shortage. Any lousy house on a duck pond was selling for a premium.
You brought up a very good point. Lots of people bought an extraordinary amount of this stuff at that time. That certainly will show up in sales of both new and used now and in the short term.
Basically, most everyone who was in the market for an RV bought it a couple of years ago already.
Succinct. Nice work!
Best I could do on a 2020 Yamaha 212X (MSRP $75k) wake boat 3 weeks ago was $47k so I passed. Told the dealer to call me when it’s at $35k, which it will be before next summer. During the “deadly pandemic!” (survival rate 99.7%), 2015s of the same boat were regularly $50k+. Cash is king.
In 2020 Marine Max Inc. came on my undervalued stock screen and a bunch of other stocks I hadn’t seen on that screen before. The market slumped and I bought. Marine Max was my biggest winner. In a couple of months it was up way over my buy price.
If you follow that stock, it will probably tell you when boat sales are slumping. It is small enough to react quickly to poor sales.
Thank you.
Scary charts. Tipping point
I am looking at making a move to Mexico for a new adventure. Rent and food appears to be more affordable in Mexico.
The federal government here in the states is getting out of control.
You aren’t the first person I have heard that from. It is sad to watch your country implode.
Russia is instituting a new program to welcome foreigners escaping economic hardships. Putin is waiving the previous entrance requirement to be able to speak Russian and know Russian history. He’s even building expat communities for different countries’ refugees. And due to Biden’s “sanctions,” the Russian economy is growing, not shrinking like ours. Russia’s economy is miniscule compared to America’s, of course, but if you’re not a government worker with an inflated guaranteed income and fabulous pension for life, your personal economy is crashing around your head. Also remember, Russia is a Christian country, like we used to be, while the good ol’ USA is being overrun with illegal immigrants raping and killing our citizens and woke snowflakes manufactured in our own universities.
I recall my grand parents talking about the American Finns that immigrated to Russia back in Stalin era. Some of their abandoned houses were still around when I was young.
They were never heard from again. I don’t trust Russian government anymore than the U.S. government. But better the devil I know.
I guess the more adventurous could short the companies that produce RVs, Boats, and every other non essential items that were overbought during the COVID fiasco. I don’t see a quick reversion coming.
One anomaly I observed, and it may only be local, is the ATV/ UTV market is quite strong in my area. I made a point of asking when I bought one. It may just be a rural trend as it is quite a popular thing and almost thought of as a necessity in much of rural America.
A “bug-out buggy”?
I don’t think of it that way. We are pretty much bugged out up here already barring having to leave the country. I would feel really uncomfortable in a large city now.
The first John Rubino interview I watched he said that he’d be watching the rv market for a sign that things are getting bad! I’ve been a subscriber ever since! Thanks John
As times change, so does the value of indicators. Is the RV price crash due to hard economic times, or is it the result of the violent gun culture exploding in America. Rv-ing has become a dangerous pastime. There is no buffer between you and someone who wipes his butt with his bare hand. No thanks, we're good.
Since banks might go bust over bad commercial real estate loans…what about credit unions? Is it safer to have savings and checking accounts in credit unions?
Harbinger of difficult times.
In regard to RV sales, I told my wife a couple of years ago that RV prices will crash. Not for economic reasons, but demographic reasons.
As a person on the tail end of the baby boomers, I have seen older boomers buy their RV’s and sell them later as they age out of them. Younger boomers often bought the used ones. There simply isn’t another big generation behind the boomers to buy the tens of thousands of rigs available now.
The class A RV’s are typically bought by retired people who have plenty of money to buy them, and plenty of time to use them. Not so much working families.
I am not disregarding your premise as it certainly does affect buying decisions. I do believe this would have occurred to a degree even in a better economy.
As the early boomers start moving into assisted living and their graves, which is starting, the housing shortage will be alleviated as well. With the crumbling economy on top of that, I am not expecting my home to appreciate any time in the near future. Actually, I believe it peaked this year.
Boomers own a crap load of guns also. Hundreds of thousands of them. I have seen sales of them just recently. If you are a collector, there will be some awesome deals soon. Especially, because most younger people will not have the resources to buy them.
Yes, and another confounding variable might be that during the pandemic a ton of people sold their houses, bought RVs, and took to life on the road. It’s possible they are getting sick of living in a tin box and are liquidating. I noticed recently that fewer people seem to be buying boats and jet skis, but that is based on limited observation. If sales of those are declining as well it would shore up the RV as predictor of recession hypothesis.
During the scamdemic there was record sales of boats, RV,s and anything related to outdoor activities.
People were relocating to rural areas like mine and occupying vacation homes full time. There was also a local real estate boom where lake property was selling at top dollar and there was a shortage. Any lousy house on a duck pond was selling for a premium.
You brought up a very good point. Lots of people bought an extraordinary amount of this stuff at that time. That certainly will show up in sales of both new and used now and in the short term.
Basically, most everyone who was in the market for an RV bought it a couple of years ago already.