Japan has more than 1 trillion dollars worth of US treasuries where it can use it to strengthen the YEN but of course with the permission of its owner Uncle Joe (US government) and it cannot defy the wish of its owner as basically it has lost its sovereignty ever since US army took control of the country. Now if it raises the interest rates of the YEN or its debt which is now over 250% of its GDP, it will crash the economy as most of the debt owners are Japanese banks, companies etc, no banks or companies can afford paying high interests. Well Japan is already a long gone country unless its government or new government 1st,, is willing first to acknowledge all the war crimes and mend its ties with the countries which it victimize in WW II like what Germany did, 2nd, get rid of the US army in Japan and regain its sovereignty, but all these said easier than done. I don't think they will have a Gandhi or MAO who dares to defy imperialism and gain a new freedom and independence for its country.
There's no way to know the number ahead of time, but there is a number and based on recent charts, the yen is heading for it at an accelerating rate. Another chart that tells the same story is gold valued in yen: https://ycharts.com/indicators/gold_price_in_yen
Thank you for your prompt response. I certainly understand how the FX rates seem to be accelerating, and the rapidly rising price of gold as valued in yen is a striking chart. While it is, undoubtedly, impossible to predict forex rates, perhaps there is a predictive model that would indicate that the yen will fall within a certain range over the course of the next 6 months to a year, for example.
Hi John. I would like your opinion about PAX Gold from the company paxos.com as a way to invest in gold digitally. The say they hold physical gold and they are audited
"...the Fed is in the same box as the Bank of Japan, and that box is shrinking with every new trillion dollars of debt." Yes, the Fed is in the same box but with a slight difference. If the Yen collapses before the US $ there will be a worldwide rush to the safety of the US and the US $ will continue to strengthen. And with 10s of trillions of worldwide debt denominated in US $ there will be a scramble to pay more for the US $ just to make those debt payments. This could result in the US $ rising along with gold. This might be what is called Milkshake theory or effect attributed to Brent Johnson.
True, the worse the world gets the more demand there is for dollars. So when the dollar depreciates, it will be against real things like oil, land, and gold, rather than euros and yen. Take 2022, when the dollar's exchange rate held up pretty well while its purchasing power fell by 10%, and double or triple those numbers for a sense of what's coming.
Yes, the the dollar, the Yen, the Pound, and the Euro could all be falling relative to commodities but the dollar could hold it's own compared to the other three. If this four currency weakening relative to commodities occurred to quickly the dollar could rise rapidly compared to the other three currencies. If this dollar rise was too rapid we could get the a dollar liquidity trap. This is strange situation where more and more Yen, Pounds and Euros would have to be printed just to buy the more expensive dollars (to pay off dollar denominated debt). In extremum, you could see the rising dollar collapse other economies. All while the dollar weakens compared to gold and silver. I might be repeating Brent Johnson's logic here.
That's also Martin Armstrong's rationale for expecting US stocks to go up while all this chaos is happening. Because we're a relatively safe haven, global capital will flow into US assets despite rising inflation.
Has anybody done a Wellness Check on Stephanie Kelton, Rohan Grey or Nathan Tankus? Whenever someone points out that we can't print indefinitely to pay our bills, they point to Japan as the "MMT Success Story".
Hey your forgetting the US is paying Japan's Debt Service. Japan is the largest holder of US TSYs and with Japan's Yield Curve control they have nearly an 8-10 x income multiple to cover their Interest payments thanks to higher for longer US rates.
That's true. And a falling currency also helps export industries, which is a big part of Japan's economy. But historically, the benefits of a weak currency don't offset the damage once the decline becomes disorderly. And this looks like that.
Japan has more than 1 trillion dollars worth of US treasuries where it can use it to strengthen the YEN but of course with the permission of its owner Uncle Joe (US government) and it cannot defy the wish of its owner as basically it has lost its sovereignty ever since US army took control of the country. Now if it raises the interest rates of the YEN or its debt which is now over 250% of its GDP, it will crash the economy as most of the debt owners are Japanese banks, companies etc, no banks or companies can afford paying high interests. Well Japan is already a long gone country unless its government or new government 1st,, is willing first to acknowledge all the war crimes and mend its ties with the countries which it victimize in WW II like what Germany did, 2nd, get rid of the US army in Japan and regain its sovereignty, but all these said easier than done. I don't think they will have a Gandhi or MAO who dares to defy imperialism and gain a new freedom and independence for its country.
Sorry to belabor the point, but what is the answer to the question posed in your title? Did you calculate a specific number?
There's no way to know the number ahead of time, but there is a number and based on recent charts, the yen is heading for it at an accelerating rate. Another chart that tells the same story is gold valued in yen: https://ycharts.com/indicators/gold_price_in_yen
Thank you for your prompt response. I certainly understand how the FX rates seem to be accelerating, and the rapidly rising price of gold as valued in yen is a striking chart. While it is, undoubtedly, impossible to predict forex rates, perhaps there is a predictive model that would indicate that the yen will fall within a certain range over the course of the next 6 months to a year, for example.
Hi John. I would like your opinion about PAX Gold from the company paxos.com as a way to invest in gold digitally. The say they hold physical gold and they are audited
"...the Fed is in the same box as the Bank of Japan, and that box is shrinking with every new trillion dollars of debt." Yes, the Fed is in the same box but with a slight difference. If the Yen collapses before the US $ there will be a worldwide rush to the safety of the US and the US $ will continue to strengthen. And with 10s of trillions of worldwide debt denominated in US $ there will be a scramble to pay more for the US $ just to make those debt payments. This could result in the US $ rising along with gold. This might be what is called Milkshake theory or effect attributed to Brent Johnson.
True, the worse the world gets the more demand there is for dollars. So when the dollar depreciates, it will be against real things like oil, land, and gold, rather than euros and yen. Take 2022, when the dollar's exchange rate held up pretty well while its purchasing power fell by 10%, and double or triple those numbers for a sense of what's coming.
Yes, the the dollar, the Yen, the Pound, and the Euro could all be falling relative to commodities but the dollar could hold it's own compared to the other three. If this four currency weakening relative to commodities occurred to quickly the dollar could rise rapidly compared to the other three currencies. If this dollar rise was too rapid we could get the a dollar liquidity trap. This is strange situation where more and more Yen, Pounds and Euros would have to be printed just to buy the more expensive dollars (to pay off dollar denominated debt). In extremum, you could see the rising dollar collapse other economies. All while the dollar weakens compared to gold and silver. I might be repeating Brent Johnson's logic here.
That's also Martin Armstrong's rationale for expecting US stocks to go up while all this chaos is happening. Because we're a relatively safe haven, global capital will flow into US assets despite rising inflation.
Rubino, the modern day wonder writer, thinker, and American!
Indeed, All American!
Has anybody done a Wellness Check on Stephanie Kelton, Rohan Grey or Nathan Tankus? Whenever someone points out that we can't print indefinitely to pay our bills, they point to Japan as the "MMT Success Story".
Why the fear mongering? It's fine.
😜
The USD/JPY has been a great trade
Funny that downward spiral was used today in the news https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/antony-blinken-xi-jinping-china-warns-us-downward-spiral-rcna149486
Hey your forgetting the US is paying Japan's Debt Service. Japan is the largest holder of US TSYs and with Japan's Yield Curve control they have nearly an 8-10 x income multiple to cover their Interest payments thanks to higher for longer US rates.
That's true. And a falling currency also helps export industries, which is a big part of Japan's economy. But historically, the benefits of a weak currency don't offset the damage once the decline becomes disorderly. And this looks like that.