But Germany imploding due to totally failed green energy policies and US act of war to blowup its Nordstream Baltic natural gas pipeline with Russia? Biden dementia add it to the list!
When/not if Germany's manufacturing economy cannot produce because there's no longer sufficient power, you get a GDP Bunds crisis overnight material discount?
Can the EURO maintain value with German Bunds yields Skyrocketing? Germany becomes the 2008 PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain)
DXY weighted 58% EUROS also skyrockets, easily over 120.
Euro Dollar USD denominated Debt greater than US Domestic Debt goes DEFAULT CITY, we need USDs = SELL US EQUITIES/BONDS effectively demanding USDs = DXY 120 might be a safe haven to reposition? Milkshake Theory = demanding Base USD Currency which is leveraged 20 to 1 (guess, too lazy to calculate) vs M2 bank/deficit liabilities.
Technically insolvent US FED Central Bank carrying $160B of Operating Losses these last 2 years to the rescue? This should be subtracted from the TGA US Treasury savings account.
The main problem I see with our current financial situation is:
1. Most of the market participants have never been “substantially invested during a bear market”. Yeh, I know they will tout how they lived through the “dot com” and the “Great Recession” bear markets.
2. But how old were they and how much money did they really have in the market? If they are 60 today that means they were only 35 and 45 years old, just beginning to build their real investable wealth. Even if they lost it all, in the dot com and Great Recession, it wouldn’t begin to compare to what they have at risk today.
3. How much of their current stock market “gains” do they attribute to the fact that the Government “threw over 30 trillion dollars” into their playpen over past 24 years?
The time is coming for our government and its citizens to put away their “Monopoly Game play money” and start taking the hard decisions. Time is not on our side.
This story explains why the Oracle of Omaha sold so many stocks and built a huge cash position recently. I envy his patience and discipline to resist the temptation to buy more equities as the stock markets keep climbing. The nickname "Oracle of Omaha" fits him well.
John, All of this makes sense in terms of markets and timing. There is one thing that I think is missing from many writers and pontificators on various platforms (I'm assuming there must be someone making this point - I just havent seen it more vigorously and widely highlighted as I believe it should be).
Most folks tend to gravitate to the play-by-play. "What is the government going to do?" or "They are trapped now!" or "The fed made a tragic error" or "We are spending like drunken sailors or shore leave" or various other subjective and even technical descriptions of bond market gyrations, inflation impacts, or economic figures.
What is missing is the common result of all of these possibilities. That common result is that most - the vast majority of people I would suggest - are going to have to lower their living standards significantly. I think this needs to be reported more widely - not necessarily the technical comparisons with, for instance, the Great Depression but also through the lens of the common man/woman/family. If the government defaults or inflates (the two widely accepted options - after kicking-the-can stops working) there will be massive job losses. The "Safety Net" of benefits will not be able to compensate for such a drastic and wide-spread event. The inevitable stimmy checks won't make it all better.
The more the masses begin to understand this fact, which should be obvious, the sooner and better policy makers will respond to the extent that they can respond at all.
The people need writers and pontificators to explain this to them more widely and in terms they can relate to. They need to know and understand that no matter what policy is implemented or discussed today, there is a piece of corrugated tin in a Hooverville on the outskirts of town waiting for them and their family if things go the way that is clearly possible. Short of that, I think the majority of folks will simply continue to tune out, and this is not a great time to be tuning out.
Black Swan (can't bet on it?
But Germany imploding due to totally failed green energy policies and US act of war to blowup its Nordstream Baltic natural gas pipeline with Russia? Biden dementia add it to the list!
When/not if Germany's manufacturing economy cannot produce because there's no longer sufficient power, you get a GDP Bunds crisis overnight material discount?
Can the EURO maintain value with German Bunds yields Skyrocketing? Germany becomes the 2008 PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain)
DXY weighted 58% EUROS also skyrockets, easily over 120.
Euro Dollar USD denominated Debt greater than US Domestic Debt goes DEFAULT CITY, we need USDs = SELL US EQUITIES/BONDS effectively demanding USDs = DXY 120 might be a safe haven to reposition? Milkshake Theory = demanding Base USD Currency which is leveraged 20 to 1 (guess, too lazy to calculate) vs M2 bank/deficit liabilities.
Technically insolvent US FED Central Bank carrying $160B of Operating Losses these last 2 years to the rescue? This should be subtracted from the TGA US Treasury savings account.
As Luke Gromen says...LET'S WATCH?
commodity stocks are not expensive, many are bargains and paying excellent dividends of 7-15%
Originally linked this when you first wrote it, will be relinking it!! -https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/2023/06/29/76100/
The main problem I see with our current financial situation is:
1. Most of the market participants have never been “substantially invested during a bear market”. Yeh, I know they will tout how they lived through the “dot com” and the “Great Recession” bear markets.
2. But how old were they and how much money did they really have in the market? If they are 60 today that means they were only 35 and 45 years old, just beginning to build their real investable wealth. Even if they lost it all, in the dot com and Great Recession, it wouldn’t begin to compare to what they have at risk today.
3. How much of their current stock market “gains” do they attribute to the fact that the Government “threw over 30 trillion dollars” into their playpen over past 24 years?
The time is coming for our government and its citizens to put away their “Monopoly Game play money” and start taking the hard decisions. Time is not on our side.
time to look for quarantine camps
I am old enough to remember when 7% mortgages were reasonable compared to what came before them.
This story explains why the Oracle of Omaha sold so many stocks and built a huge cash position recently. I envy his patience and discipline to resist the temptation to buy more equities as the stock markets keep climbing. The nickname "Oracle of Omaha" fits him well.
I wonder if he wouldn't be better off with gold, silver and mining stocks.
John, All of this makes sense in terms of markets and timing. There is one thing that I think is missing from many writers and pontificators on various platforms (I'm assuming there must be someone making this point - I just havent seen it more vigorously and widely highlighted as I believe it should be).
Most folks tend to gravitate to the play-by-play. "What is the government going to do?" or "They are trapped now!" or "The fed made a tragic error" or "We are spending like drunken sailors or shore leave" or various other subjective and even technical descriptions of bond market gyrations, inflation impacts, or economic figures.
What is missing is the common result of all of these possibilities. That common result is that most - the vast majority of people I would suggest - are going to have to lower their living standards significantly. I think this needs to be reported more widely - not necessarily the technical comparisons with, for instance, the Great Depression but also through the lens of the common man/woman/family. If the government defaults or inflates (the two widely accepted options - after kicking-the-can stops working) there will be massive job losses. The "Safety Net" of benefits will not be able to compensate for such a drastic and wide-spread event. The inevitable stimmy checks won't make it all better.
The more the masses begin to understand this fact, which should be obvious, the sooner and better policy makers will respond to the extent that they can respond at all.
The people need writers and pontificators to explain this to them more widely and in terms they can relate to. They need to know and understand that no matter what policy is implemented or discussed today, there is a piece of corrugated tin in a Hooverville on the outskirts of town waiting for them and their family if things go the way that is clearly possible. Short of that, I think the majority of folks will simply continue to tune out, and this is not a great time to be tuning out.
start building Hoovervilles