I think the real market rate of 10 year Treasuries will clear things up a bit. Lowering the Fed rate by 0.25% to give relief to borrowers is counter to all the official economic numbers, which are supposed to be so good, and the uptick in the CPI.
The gold,price, as usual, was counter intuitive too, falling instead of rising, though that should (?) be short-lived. Falling rates and rising inflation should make it go up, but if the 10-year is going up, that could explain it.
That said, historically, governments choose to let the currency die rather than go bankrupt, so lower interest costs are favored over price inflation.
I’m with Timmy. I don’t trust any numbers from anybody. Are car sales really up, or did the car companies force a lot of inventory onto their dealers and call them sales? Or did they pull some other trick? Or is the number seasonally adjusted?
Below is from a recent Bear Cave email of a couple of days ago:
Iceberg Research published an update on Quantum Computing Inc (NASDAQ: QUBT — $793 million), an early-stage quantum computing hardware company. Iceberg said the company “has chased every possible hype over the last few years” and compared the company’s manufacturing facilities to a basic lab. Two weeks ago, Iceberg also called the company a “perma-scam.”
I don’t know much about particle physics, but I do know that belief in quantum computing implies a belief in multiple universes. QC pioneer Hartmut Neven has said that some of the computation activity of a quantum computer will occur in a parallel universe. He also said that electrons can be at 2 different places at the same time. My brain is just not big enough to understand all of this, I guess, but my scepticism-ometer is flashing yellow. Having said that, I still wish that I’d bought QUBT a month ago.
In these crazy manipulated markets, I'm staying mostly in cash. As for consumers buying, what do the UPS and FedEx numbers show? Is shipping up or down?
Officially, inflation was about 20% over the last 4 years, and I believe that's a very low number. So our dollars have lost at least 1/5 of their value in that short time period. You may want to research "sound money" including gold, silver, and bitcoin.
Chris, I own gold and silver. I hate the vigorish in buying and selling the stuff. I don't trust bitcoin or anything that is all digital and computer dependent.
I hear that... I like gold and silver, and an all-digital currency just doesn't seem right. I started on this sound money path when I became convinced that the way our debt and monetary system are heading is unsustainable and therefore we're going to have some kind of financial reset as USD becomes near worthless. But the more I understand Bitcoin, including its advantages over gold, and the more I see the willingness of individuals and governments to adopt it even though governments can't really control it, I'm coming to believe that Bitcoin along with XRP is going to play a major role in our financial future. Cheers!
Isn't Fed between a rock-and-a-hard place with rates, because raising them will make servicing the debt impossible and lowering them will allow inflation--which is much higher than being reported--to get out of hand? Keeping them roughly the same will mean money printing for the foreseeable future, which will be inflationary, but what else can they do at this point? How much Trump and Republicans cut remains to be seen, but it's been pointed out that the big ticket items like Social Security, Medicare, and defense, are unlikely to see much reduction. This is why analysts I listen to say "all roads lead to more inflation". Do you agree?
I agree with Pat that we are likely to see a drastic change in news media narrative next year in order to attack Trump, and it will likely be closer to the truth. This could be a catalyst for a stock market crash, considering the market seems to be running on euphoria.
Rising long term interest rates say it all. The bond market appears to expect higher interest and it will override the Fed and politicians, and thereby deflate overvaluations in the stock market.
Haven't we seen this play before? I'd bet on things starting to unravel Q1 2025 because(1) it'll be on Trump's watch-and it seems to me there is plenty of historic economic precedent for the dems handing a teetering economy over to a new administration (2) some powers that be would like to sink Trump (ya think?🤔) (3) The data will be revised to reality -or as close to reality that the bs government can get-and that will have a psychological impact if nothing else (4) Mania never lasts, ie This time is not different.
i am not any kind of Expert.....but i do observe......and what i am observing is that the Deep State does not want Trump in the White House
so my observation is that the Fed may be purposelly.......working the Markets to make them look like shit as Trump is scheduled to be in the White House.......
is my observation worthy of some thought???????? or am i out to Lunch.....??????
I think the real market rate of 10 year Treasuries will clear things up a bit. Lowering the Fed rate by 0.25% to give relief to borrowers is counter to all the official economic numbers, which are supposed to be so good, and the uptick in the CPI.
The gold,price, as usual, was counter intuitive too, falling instead of rising, though that should (?) be short-lived. Falling rates and rising inflation should make it go up, but if the 10-year is going up, that could explain it.
That said, historically, governments choose to let the currency die rather than go bankrupt, so lower interest costs are favored over price inflation.
I’m with Timmy. I don’t trust any numbers from anybody. Are car sales really up, or did the car companies force a lot of inventory onto their dealers and call them sales? Or did they pull some other trick? Or is the number seasonally adjusted?
Below is from a recent Bear Cave email of a couple of days ago:
Iceberg Research published an update on Quantum Computing Inc (NASDAQ: QUBT — $793 million), an early-stage quantum computing hardware company. Iceberg said the company “has chased every possible hype over the last few years” and compared the company’s manufacturing facilities to a basic lab. Two weeks ago, Iceberg also called the company a “perma-scam.”
I don’t know much about particle physics, but I do know that belief in quantum computing implies a belief in multiple universes. QC pioneer Hartmut Neven has said that some of the computation activity of a quantum computer will occur in a parallel universe. He also said that electrons can be at 2 different places at the same time. My brain is just not big enough to understand all of this, I guess, but my scepticism-ometer is flashing yellow. Having said that, I still wish that I’d bought QUBT a month ago.
In these crazy manipulated markets, I'm staying mostly in cash. As for consumers buying, what do the UPS and FedEx numbers show? Is shipping up or down?
Officially, inflation was about 20% over the last 4 years, and I believe that's a very low number. So our dollars have lost at least 1/5 of their value in that short time period. You may want to research "sound money" including gold, silver, and bitcoin.
Chris, I own gold and silver. I hate the vigorish in buying and selling the stuff. I don't trust bitcoin or anything that is all digital and computer dependent.
I hear that... I like gold and silver, and an all-digital currency just doesn't seem right. I started on this sound money path when I became convinced that the way our debt and monetary system are heading is unsustainable and therefore we're going to have some kind of financial reset as USD becomes near worthless. But the more I understand Bitcoin, including its advantages over gold, and the more I see the willingness of individuals and governments to adopt it even though governments can't really control it, I'm coming to believe that Bitcoin along with XRP is going to play a major role in our financial future. Cheers!
Isn't Fed between a rock-and-a-hard place with rates, because raising them will make servicing the debt impossible and lowering them will allow inflation--which is much higher than being reported--to get out of hand? Keeping them roughly the same will mean money printing for the foreseeable future, which will be inflationary, but what else can they do at this point? How much Trump and Republicans cut remains to be seen, but it's been pointed out that the big ticket items like Social Security, Medicare, and defense, are unlikely to see much reduction. This is why analysts I listen to say "all roads lead to more inflation". Do you agree?
I agree with Pat that we are likely to see a drastic change in news media narrative next year in order to attack Trump, and it will likely be closer to the truth. This could be a catalyst for a stock market crash, considering the market seems to be running on euphoria.
Rising long term interest rates say it all. The bond market appears to expect higher interest and it will override the Fed and politicians, and thereby deflate overvaluations in the stock market.
Haven't we seen this play before? I'd bet on things starting to unravel Q1 2025 because(1) it'll be on Trump's watch-and it seems to me there is plenty of historic economic precedent for the dems handing a teetering economy over to a new administration (2) some powers that be would like to sink Trump (ya think?🤔) (3) The data will be revised to reality -or as close to reality that the bs government can get-and that will have a psychological impact if nothing else (4) Mania never lasts, ie This time is not different.
i am not any kind of Expert.....but i do observe......and what i am observing is that the Deep State does not want Trump in the White House
so my observation is that the Fed may be purposelly.......working the Markets to make them look like shit as Trump is scheduled to be in the White House.......
is my observation worthy of some thought???????? or am i out to Lunch.....??????
There’s a big flock of black swans circling overhead. Just a question of which one lands first.
They are not black swans then
“Close enough for government work.”