Tomorrow's Job Market: DO NOT Learn To Code

Do become a mining engineer

In late 2023, I posted an article on how to develop the skills necessary to get through a protracted supply chain disruption: Skill Stacking, Part 1: Handymen Will Inherit the Earth.

But since then, the stakes have gotten even higher. A financial/supply chain crisis is still coming. But now AI is altering the job market in ways that make “skill stacking” even more crucial, especially for young people deciding on a career. So the latest cutting-edge advice is, Do not learn to code. Instead, learn to weld or wire.

Mike Rowe, who heads a foundation that awards scholarships for trade schools and community colleges, puts it this way:

“We’ve been telling kids for 15 years to learn to code.”

Well, AI is coming for the coders. It’s not coming for the welders, the plumbers, the steamfitters, the pipefitters, the HVAC, or the electricians. In Aspen, I sat and listened to Larry Fink say we need 500,000 electricians in the next couple of years—not hyperbole. The BlueForge Alliance, who oversees our maritime industrial base—that’s 15,000 individual companies who are collectively charged with building and delivering nuclear-powered subs to the Navy … calls and says, we’re having a hell of a time finding tradespeople. Can you help?

I said, I don’t know, man … how many do you need? He says, 140,000. These are our submarines. Things go hypersonic, a little sideways with China, Taiwan, our aircraft carriers are no longer the point of the spear. They’re vulnerable. Our submarines matter, and these guys have a pinch point because they can’t find welders and electricians to get them built. The automotive industry needs 80,000 collision repair and technicians. Energy, I don’t even know what the number is, I hear 300,000, I hear 500,000. There is a clear and present freakout going on right now. I’ve heard from six governors in the last six months. I’ve heard from the heads of major companies.

What's the problem?

We've made work the enemy.

America has become slowly but undeniably disconnected from the most fundamental elements of civilization—food, energy, education, and the very nature of work itself.

Over the last 30 years, America has convinced itself that the best path for the most people is an expensive, four-year degree. Pop culture has glorified the “corner office job” while unintentionally belittling the jobs that helped build the corner office. As a result, our society has devalued any other path to success and happiness. Community colleges, trade schools, and apprenticeship programs are labeled as “alternative.” Millions of well-intended parents and guidance counselors see apprenticeships and on-the-job training opportunities as “vocational consolation prizes,” best suited for those not cut out for the brass ring: a four-year degree. The push for higher education has coincided with the removal of vocational arts from high schools nationwide. And the effects of this one-two punch have laid the foundation for a widening skills gap and massive student loan debt.

Today, the skills gap is wider than it’s ever been. The cost of college tuition has soared faster than the cost of food, energy, real estate, and health care. Student loan debt is the second highest consumer debt category in the United States with more than 45 million borrowers who collectively owe more than $1.7 trillion.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are more than 7.6 million jobs available across the country, the majority of which don’t require a four-year degree. And still, we talk about millions of “shovel ready” jobs for a society that doesn’t encourage people to pick up a shovel. We keep lending money we don’t have to people who can’t pay it back for jobs that don’t exist. Bit by bit, our culture reaffirms the misguided belief that a career in the skilled trades shouldn’t be desired. And that lack of enthusiasm has reshaped our expectations of a “good job” into something that no longer resembles work.

A More Rational World

A world in which lawyers and college professors are thrown out of work en masse while plumbers, electricians, and mining engineers are guaranteed a lifetime of upper-middle-class money appears to be inevitable.

It’s also a lot more rational than the system designed by today’s expert class. Put simply, the people who build and maintain society should benefit from it.

So — to the extent that your grandkids will listen — make sure they understand what’s coming.