Rick Mills: The Mining M&A Boom Has Begun

Free cash flow makes many things possible — including miner mega-deals. Here’s a great overview of this emerging M&A boom, courtesy of Ahead of the Herd’s Rick Mills:

Copper and Gold Senior Merger Activity

Global mining merger and acquisition (M&A) activity is undergoing a major shift, characterized by a drop in the number of individual transactions but a massive surge in total deal values.

High commodity prices, the global clean-energy transition, and a desire to secure safe supply chains have driven companies to make massive, multi-billion dollar “mega-deals” instead of pursuing riskier new exploration projects.

According to comprehensive research reports from industry authorities like S&P Global, PwC, and White & Case, the mining sector recently recorded its strongest financial transaction momentum since the 2010–2012 commodity super-cycle.

Global activity and market trends

• Soaring deal values: Total global mining M&A values reached $139billion in 2025, which is a massive 35% jump compared to 2024.

• The rise of the megadeals: Large transactions worth over $1 billion each grew by 68% to reach an aggregate of $97 billion, demonstrating that market power is consolidating among the biggest companies.

• Declining deal counts: In contrast to high dollar values, the total number of completed deals actually fell roughly 20%. Companies are choosing large, established “bolt-on” assets over buying up multiple smaller operations.

• Strong 2026 momentum: This pattern extended through the first half of 2026. For instance, Q1 2026 recorded $21.6 billion in transactions across 121 deals—a 34% increase in value from Q1 2025, marking the strongest start to a year in three seasons.

Four specific metals account for the vast majority (roughly 70%) of all recent deal values:

• Copper (base metals shift): Copper has taken center stage. Driven by international electrification needs (electric vehicles, power grids, and artificial intelligence infrastructure), major miners are aggressively competing for copper portfolios.

• Gold (precious metals consolidation): Spurred by record-high gold prices, precious metals are seeing intense consolidation. Mid-tier and senior producers are rapidly buying out smaller junior companies with proven reserves to extend their operating life.

• Lithium & nickel (critical energy transition minerals): While lithium experienced a temporary dip in total deal value due to short-term price adjustments, strategic megadeals continue. Large miners are utilizing temporary downturns to acquire future-facing green assets at a discount.

Mining companies have shifted their focus away from traditional exploration (“greenfield” growth) due to high costs, permitting delays, and inflation.

Instead, they are using M&A for three distinct reasons:

• Securing friendly supply chains: In a highly fractured political landscape, buyers are actively prioritizing mining operations located in politically stable, “Tier-1” geographic regions—primarily North America and Australia.

• Strategic joint ventures: Rather than navigating risky, hostile corporate takeovers, 32% of mining leaders cite “strategic partnerships” as their primary transaction tool. This allows multiple giants to share costs and infrastructure in mature mining zones.

• Creative structuring: High interest rates have pushed up the cost of capital. To hedge their bets against volatile commodity prices, companies are heavily utilizing specialized payment terms like all-share stock deals, royalty agreements, and earnout provisions (which delay full payment until a project hits specific production milestones).

The 9 mega-deals

1. Coeur Mining & New Gold Inc. ($7.0 Billion USD): In one of the largest precious metals deals of the cycle, Coeur Mining launched a massive all-stock acquisition of New Gold (TSX: NGD) to absorb its high-producing Rainy River and New Afton mines in Canada.

2. Equinox Gold & Orla Mining ($5.1 Billion USD): Announced in mid-2026, Equinox Gold agreed to combine with Orla Mining (TSX: OLA), forming a powerhouse North American producer targeting over 1 million ounces of annual gold production.

3. Equinox Gold & Calibre Mining ($2.2 Billion USD): Prior to the Orla merger, Equinox Gold consolidated its grip on the Americas by acquiring Calibre Mining (TSX: CXB) to create a highly diversified operating profile.

4. Gold Fields & Osisko Mining ($2.16 Billion USD): Global giant Gold Fields bought out Osisko Mining to gain full 100% control of the tier-one Windfall gold project located in Quebec.

5. Agnico Eagle Mines & Rupert Resources ($2.12 Billion USD): Moving heavily into northern Europe, Agnico Eagle orchestrated a strategic takeover of Rupert Resources (TSX: RUP) to consolidate Finland’s prospective Central Lapland Greenstone Belt.

6. G Mining Ventures & G2 Goldfields ($2.15 Billion USD / ~$3B CAD): G Mining Ventures finalized a major corporate combination to take over G2 Goldfields (TSXV: GTWO), unlocking significant resource scale in South America.

7. Jiangxi Copper & SolGold ($1.2 Billion USD): Executed via Canadian trading channels, Jiangxi Copper completed a full buyout of SolGold (TSX: SOLG) to secure the massive Cascabel gold-copper project.

8. Carcetti Capital & Hemlo Gold Mine ($1.1 Billion USD): In a massive asset portfolio rationalization, global giant Barrick Gold sold its historic Hemlo Gold Mine in Ontario entirely to Carcetti Capital.

9. B2Gold & Sabina Gold & Silver ($1.1 Billion CAD / ~$820M USD Base): B2Gold completed its multi-billion dollar domestic expansion by taking over Sabina Gold & Silver, handing B2Gold the fully permitted, multi-million-ounce Back River gold district in Nunavut. (Note: In broader Canadian market indices, this is frequently coupled with Eldorado Gold’s recent peer-bidding or critical gold-adjacent moves like the $3.8B Foran transaction to round out the core top-tier resource M&A pool).

Copper

Read the copper section of Rick’s article here.

Action-Packed Year Ahead

Mega-deals like the above will create lots of new small- and mid-tier miners, as the post-merger seniors shed non-core assets. For us, that means dozens of potential 10-baggers to consider. Fun times!