Monthly Portfolio Review, June 2024

June was a typical “summer doldrums” month — with a few zingers thrown in to keep us paying attention.

Gold ran from $1800 in October to $2400 in May, and then spent June consolidating at around $2300.

Silver followed the same pattern as gold, rising from $21 to $32 before settling around the current $29.

The major gold/silver miners, represented by the GDX and SIL ETFs, followed the underlying metals:

A handful of portfolio stocks bucked the summer doldrums with dramatic news, some good, some potentially bad (see the Portfolio Stock News links list below).

Outlook

The past few months’ high gold/silver prices might generate some positive Q2 earnings surprises in July. This in turn might cause some of the more efficient miners’ shares to pop. Otherwise, substantive news will probably be scarce.

Let’s try to enjoy this temporary tranquility, because in the Fall things will get very interesting indeed. A slowing economy will give the Fed cover to start cutting interest rates (whether this combination is good or bad for commodities remains to be seen). Gold and silver will enter the bullish phase of their seasonal pattern (note the October-to-May action on the above charts). And our “who the hell knows?” presidential election will (hopefully) take place, with unpredictable policy implications.

Through it all, two things remain likely: There’s not enough uranium, copper, gold or silver to satisfy the needs of an electrifying world. And the highest-quality commodities stocks will thrive in that environment.

Portfolio

Our large-cap uranium and copper stocks and gold/silver ETFs remain winners while “junior” anything is mostly unloved. This will change once the commodities bull market really gets going. But in the meantime I’ll be starting a series of deep dives into the worst performers to determine whether they’re legit 10-bagger candidates at their currently depressed prices or should be replaced by juniors and explorers with better prospects.