Monthly Portfolio Review, July 2025

Healthy consolidation, massively higher earnings

Aug 02, 2025

∙ Paid

Gold has had a great run and is now in a normal, healthy consolidation:

This is a great environment for well-run gold miners, because the metal’s current price range is way above the cost of production, resulting in record levels of operating cash flow. Watch this month’s earnings reports for pleasant surprises.

How much longer does the gold bull have to run?

This graphic from Lobo Tiggre offers some insight: Only independent speculators currently see the light, while generalist investors are still hypnotized by shadows on the cave wall (i.e., mainstream opinion). It will be a while before they (and their money) start piling into gold.

Copper, meanwhile, is riding the tariff roller coaster. After spiking on news that US tariffs would tighten domestic supplies, it plunged on the news of imminent trade deals. It remains, however, in a range that’s profitable for well-run miners.

The chaos caused by all these trade wars makes near-term commodity price movements completely unpredictable. But the long-term story remains spectacular. So try to ignore the headlines and focus on underlying fundamentals.