Commodities analyst Marin Katusa just posted a look at what corporate executives are doing with their shares — versus what retail investors and hedge funds are doing. The contrast is scary for everyone but short sellers. Here’s an excerpt:
Five Alarm Chart Fire: Some Wall Street Money Is Quietly Heading for the Exit
Katusa Research December 20, 2024
The contrast couldn’t be more stark – or more alarming.
The champagne is flowing on Wall Street as markets hit record highs, but behind the scenes, some of the savviest players in finance are quietly packing their bags.
The Retail Stampede: Everyone’s a Genius in a Bull Market Retail
Investors are pouring money into the market at a dizzying pace, with 2024 seeing an unprecedented $448 billion flowing into U.S. equity funds.
It’s reminiscent of the late 1990s, when taxi drivers were giving stock tips and every dinner party turned into an investment seminar.
The difference? Today’s investors are armed with leveraged ETFs and commission-free trading apps.
Our “Brother-in-Law” indicator is beeping faster and faster.
Corporate Executives Are Cashing Out While Main Street Buys
Corporate America’s top brass is selling – and selling big.
Corporate executive stock sales have hit all-time highs, creating a seller-to-buyer ratio that should make any investor pause.
When the people running the companies are rushing to cash in their chips, it might be time to ask why.
Leverage Fever: The Return of Financial Heroin
Remember those warnings about not using leverage in an unstable market? Investors apparently don’t.
Trading in leveraged ETF products has exploded to $80 billion weekly, turning the market into a high-stakes casino where every bet is doubled down.
It’s financial heroin – thrilling until it isn’t.
The Oracle’s Warning: Buffett’s $160 Billion Message
Warren Buffett, the legendary investor who made his fortune being “fearful when others are greedy,” is sitting on his largest cash pile since the 2008 financial crisis.
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position has swelled to historic levels, suggesting the Oracle of Omaha sees storm clouds where others see clear skies.
In the December issue of Katusa’s Resource Opportunities, we discussed Marin Katusa’s personal cash percentage weighting, and talked about the merits of being an alligator investor: waiting before we buy our targeted resource companies.
We have our list of great companies to buy, but just as important as buying great companies is “what price” you pay for that great company.
The Smart Money’s Last Dance? Professional Traders Hit New Records
Professional traders have pushed their bullish positions in S&P 500 futures to unprecedented levels.
But here’s the twist – historically, when everyone’s positioned the same way, the market has a nasty habit of proving the majority wrong.
Some of it is year-end tax stuff, things expiring, contracts... But I think the trend is there.
Adam Taggart interviewed a guy recently who had the same message that insiders are shifting out of equities.
I had heard the Berkshire Hathaway billionaire had sold some equity holdings so as to build a large cash war chest so as to be able to re-invest at good prices after the market declines.
Katusa's views are not unique at all.