Gold Miner Q4 Earnings: Worth Waiting For
A generational bull market
We still have a while to wait for the gold/silver miners’ Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings. Newmont, one of the early reporters, is scheduled to release its results on February 19.
But after that, the deluge.
And a fun deluge it’s going to be. Sticking with Newmont, here’s a chart of its past year’s earnings versus analyst estimates. Note that, thanks to a combination of rising gold prices and management’s attention to cost control, the miner has consistently beaten expectations.
Now look at the Q4 2025 estimate. It’s up big, as analysts try to keep up with gold’s steady price increase. But if Newmont just matches this estimate, that would be 33% year-over-year and sequential growth, with correspondingly high free cash flow.
This, in turn, makes many things possible for Newmont and its peers, including debt reduction, dividend increases, and opportunistic acquisitions. In other words, a big Q4 earnings gain is just the first in a series of interesting developments/announcements.
So don’t think in terms of “topping” action. Continue to add to positions drawn from our Portfolio, via low-ball bids, dollar cost averaging, and put writing. We’re in the early stages of a generational bull market, and the real fun is still to come.
"We’re in the early stages of a generational bull market, and the real fun is still to come."
That is - I believe - a true statement, and the sooner one fully accepts that the better. By that I mean, the more confident you'll be in investing new money into bullion and mining and resource stocks.
My wife is a good example. Not long ago she was the most financially risk averse person imaginable. She would literally sell out of anything that dropped in price even for a day. All of her savings was in money market accounts, even during ZIRP. Then she stepped out into buying short term Treasuries because she was told that when they matured she was guaranteed to earn their interest, regardless of how their prices fluctuated in the meantime. That went on for a few years, all the while hearing about how much my savings was growing. But she also heard me complaining too, that I would lose some times 10% in one day, but then bragging about gaining 10% by the end of the month.
Her bonds matured on December 15 last year, and she finally asked for my advice. I said I would immediately put as much as you can bear into GDX, SIL, URA, COPX, and Chevron (she likes Chevron for some reason, and not because of its dividend.) So she tiptoed in starting around December 20, and by the end of the year the group was up about 10%. So she added half of the rest of her stash on January 2, and because of yesterday, now she's bitching that I didn't make her invest all of it on December 20.
Her whole portfolio is now up so much that even a significant pull back would still not erase all of her gains, so she'll probably never panic again and sell out, that is until she needs the money.
The time to sell will be when precious metals mania among the general public is perfectly evident as it was in the late 70s. Moose pasture "exploration" firms will be skyrocketing in price because they have the word gold or silver in their name. CNBC talking heads might mention the existence of precious metals once or twice a month (stranger things have happened). We are no where near that point, in fact the polar opposite is true.